Week 1 | 2025
Austin, Texas
Employment and Unemployment:
As of November 2024, the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area's unemployment rate was approximately 3.5%, remaining below state and national averages.
Housing Market:
In October 2024, Austin's median home price was $430,000, reflecting a 3.2% year-over-year decrease. The market showed signs of stabilization with increased inventory levels, indicating a shift towards a more balanced housing environment.
Retail Sales:
In September 2024, the three-month moving average of Austin's real, inflation-adjusted retail sales tax collections decreased by 0.9%, while the state's collections grew by 0.5%. Year-over-year, metro retail sales tax collections were up 0.7%, with Texas' collections rising by 1.0%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
United States
Stock Market Performance:
The S&P 500 concluded 2024 with a 23% increase, driven primarily by gains in the technology sector. Investors are now focusing on upcoming economic indicators, such as employment reports, to gauge market direction in early 2025.
Economic Growth:
The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a 2% annual rate in 2025, moderating from an estimated 2.8% rate in 2024, yet still indicating robust economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy:
The Federal Reserve has implemented interest rate cuts, expecting further reductions in 2025. However, the pace and extent of these cuts will depend on economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment data.
Global Economy
IMF Growth Projections:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the global growth rate to remain at 3.2% for 2024, slightly decreasing to 3.1% in the medium term. The U.S. economy is expected to remain a key driver of global growth, with strong consumer spending contributing to this outlook.
Market Inflows:
Global equity funds have experienced significant inflows, reflecting investor optimism following favorable U.S. inflation reports and the avoidance of a government shutdown. This trend indicates a positive shift in market sentiment as 2025 begins.
Currency and Bond Markets:
The U.S. dollar has reached near a two-year high against a basket of currencies, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields have also climbed, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.613% and the two-year yield to 4.3489%.
In the News…
Austin, Texas
Tech Industry Expansion: Austin's technology sector continues to grow as a major software company announced plans to open a new regional headquarters in the city, projected to bring 1,200 jobs by 2026. This move is expected to reinforce Austin's reputation as a leading tech hub.
Source: Austin Business Journal
Film Industry Incentives: Texas lawmakers' significant film incentives have spurred interest in Austin as a filming location, with several major productions slated to begin in 2025. Industry leaders are optimistic about the program's potential impact on the local economy.
Source: KXAN News
United States
Stock Market Outlook: U.S. equity markets have shown mixed performance this week, with the S&P 500 slightly down due to technology sector losses. However, optimism remains for a rebound as employment data due later this week may signal sustained economic resilience.
Source: Reuters
Automotive Industry: Ford has announced a $7 billion investment to enhance its electric vehicle production capabilities, signaling an aggressive push toward EV market leadership. This includes the development of new battery technologies and manufacturing plants.
Source: CNBC
Global Business News
Energy Sector: Global oil prices have risen by 2% this week, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts predict continued volatility in the energy markets for the first quarter of 2025.
Source: Bloomberg
Retail Industry: Fast fashion giant H&M is expanding its sustainability initiatives with a new program that allows customers to rent clothing instead of buying. The initiative, launching first in Europe, aims to address environmental concerns and adapt to shifting consumer behavior.
Source: Financial Times
Automotive Industry Merger: Honda and Nissan's recently announced merger discussions are set to reshape the automotive landscape. The combined entity could become the world's third-largest automaker, focusing on electric and autonomous vehicle innovations.
Source: Financial Times
Stay tuned for further updates as the week progresses, and consult trusted financial and news sources for the latest developments.
*Please note that economic conditions are subject to rapid changes. It's advisable to consult real-time financial news sources and official economic reports for the most current information.